Section 002
Math 3160 — Probability (Syllabus Spring 2022)
Catalog description: Introduction to the theory of probability. Sets and counting, probability axioms, conditional probabilities, random variables, limit theorems. Three credits. Prerequisite: MATH 2110Q, 2130Q or 2143Q.
Open source educational materials are provided (no textbook is necessary for this course)
Standard syllabus for Math 3160 Probability:
- Combinatorics: product rule and permutations; combinations.
- Axioms of Probability: sample spaces, events and set operations; probability axioms.
- Conditional Probability and Independence: conditional probability and Bayes rule; probability trees; independent events.
- Discrete Random Variables: probability mass function (PMF), cumulative distribution function (CDF); expectation; variance, moments, moment generating function (MGF). Uniform, Bernoulli, Binomial, Poisson, Geometric, Hypergeometric distributions; expectation, variance, MGF of these RVs.
- Continuous Univariate Random Variables: probability density function (PDF), CDF, expectation, variance, moments, MGF. Uniform, Exponential, Gamma, Normal distributions; expectation, variance, MGF of these RVs. Transformations (functions) of continuous RVs.
- Jointly Distributed Random Variables: joint PMF/PDF, and CDF; marginal distributions; conditional PMF/PDF; conditional expectation and variance; covariance and correlation coefficients.
- Limit Theorems: Weak Law of Large Numbers, Central Limit Theorem, Normal approximations.
HW 1 (January 18):
- read Chapter 1 “Combinatorics”;
- optional: listen to Video Lectures 01a, 01b, 01c;
- do all exercises in this chapter (ask questions in class);
- Sample Quiz Chapter 1, solution 2019
- Sample Quiz Chapter 1, solution 2018
- Sample Quiz Chapter 1 with solution 2017
- Sample Quiz Chapter 1 with solution 2020
HW 2 (January 20):
- Review HW for week 1 and do any unfinished work;
- read Chapter 2 “The probability set-up”;
- optional: listen to Video Lectures 02a, 02b;
- do all exercises in this chapter (ask questions in class);
- Sample Quiz 2 with solution
- Sample Quiz Chapter 2, solution 2020
- Sample Quiz Chapter 2, solution 2019
- Sample Quiz Chapter 2, solution 2018
- Sample Quiz Chapter 2 with solution 2017
- Quiz 2 2021 (solution)
HW 3 (January 25, 27):
- Review HW for week 2 and do any unfinished work; submit Quiz for Chapters 1 and 2 in HuskyCT by Wednesday January 26.
- read Chapter 3 “Independence” and Chapter 4 “Conditional probability”;
- optional: listen to Video Lecture 3a for Chapter 3 and Video Lectures 3b and 3c for Chapter 4;
- ask questions in class;
- Quiz 3+4 Fall 2021
- jhu.edu/testing-positivity
- Sample Quiz 3+4
- Sample Quiz Chapters 3+4, (with solution 2020):
- Sample Quiz Chapter 3 solution (2019)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 4 solution (2019)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 3 solution (2018)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 4 solution (2018)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 3 with solutions (2017)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 4 with solutions (2017)
HW 4 (February 1):
- Review HW for week 2 and do any unfinished work;
- read Chapter 5 “Random variables”;
- optional: listen to Video Lectures 4a and 4b for Chapter 5;
- ask questions in class;
- Sample Quiz 5 with solution (2020 Fall)
- Sample Quiz 5 solution (2020 Spring)
- Sample Quiz 5 solution (2019)
- Sample Quiz 5 solution (2018)
- Sample Quiz 5 with solutions (2017)
- quiz 5 Fall 2021 (answers)
HW 5 (February 3):
- read Chapter 6 “Some discrete distributions“;
- optional: listen to Video Lectures 4c and 4d for Chapter 6;
- ask questions in class;
- How to pronounce Poisson? /ˈpwɑːsɒn/
- Matt Bognar’s applets for discrete distributions
- Geometric and Poisson distributions in infection spread (538 Riddler Classic solution and an article by Emma Knight)
- Sample Quiz 6 (Fall 2021) with answers
- Sample Quiz 6 (Fall 2020);
- Sample Quiz 6 (Spring 2020), solution
- Sample Quiz Chapter 6 with solution (2019)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 6 with answers (2018)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 6 with solutions (2017)
HW – (February 8):
- Review of chapters 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
HW – (February 10):
- In-class Test on Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. You can bring one two-sided hand-written page of notes with formulas.
HW 7 (February 15):
- read Chapter 7 “Continuous distributions”
- ask questions in class; optional: listen to Video Lectures 5a for Chapter 7
- Quiz Fall 2021 (Chapters 6 and 7) Answers
- Sample Quiz Chapter 7 with solutions (Fall 2020)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 7.pdf with solution (Spring 2020)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 7.pdf with solution (2019)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 7.pdf with answers (2018)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 7 with solutions (2017)
HW 8-9 (February 18, 22):
- do the HW and do any unfinished work;
- read Chapter 8 “Normal distribution” and Chapter 9 “Normal approximation”;
- ask questions in class: normal-Gaussian and binomial
- optional: listen to Video Lecture 5b for Chapters 8 and 9;
- Sample quiz 8-9 with solution (Fall 2020);
- Sample Quiz Chapters 8-9, with solution (Spring 2020)
- Sample Quiz Chapters 8-9 with solutions (2019)
- Sample Quiz Chapters 8-9 with solutions (2018)
- Sample Quiz Chapters 8-9 with solutions (2017)
- graphing applet for the binomial distribution
HW 10 (February 25):
-
- Review HW and do any unfinished work; ask questions in class;
- try to solve the optional posted 538 Riddles (Riddler Express and/or Riddler Classic) for extra credit by Sunday noon;
- read Chapter 10 “Some continuous distributions” and do all exercises;
- optional: read and memorize Strategy to transform continuous random variables and this table of continuous distributions;
- optional: listen to Video Lectures 5c and 5d for Chapter 10;
- Sample Quiz Chapter 10 (2020);
- Sample Quiz Chapter 10 and solution (2019)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 10 and solution (2018)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 10 and solutions (2017) with notes
- a sample Test 2a with answers (2017a)
- a sample Test 2b with solutions (2017b) with notes
HW 11 (March 1):
- read Chapter 11 “Multivariate distributions“; do all exercises;
- optional: listen to Video Lectures 6a, 6b, 6c and 6d, for Chapter 11;
- Sample Quiz Chapter 11 (Fall 2020);
- Sample Quiz Chapter 11 (Spring 2020), solution
- Sample Quiz Chapter 11 and solution (2019)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 11 and solution (2018)
HW 12 (March 3):
- read Chapter 12 “Expectations” and do all examples and exercises;
- optional: listen to Video Lectures 7a, 7b, 7c for Chapter 12;
- ask questions (here are pictures from the white board, November 26, 2018 and November 19, 2019; white board 2020-11-02 )
- Sample Quiz 12 (Fall 2020);
- Sample Quiz Chapter 12, solution (Spring 2020)
- Sample Quiz Chapter 12 and solution (2019)
- Quiz Chapters 11-12 with solutions (2017)
- Sample Test 2 with answers (2018)
HW – (March 8):
- Review of chapters 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12.
HW – (March 10):
- In-class Test on Chapters 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. You can bring one two-sided hand-written page of notes with formulas.
HW – (March 22, 24):
- Chapters 11, 12.
HW – (March 29, 7):
- read Chapter 13 “Moment generating functions” (do all examples and exercises);
- white board 2020-11-09 chapter 12, (EX,EY);
- optional: listen to Video Lectures 7d and 7e for Chapter 13;
- Sample Quiz on Chapter 13 (Fall 2020);
- Sample Quiz on Chapter 13 (Spring 2020) notes hints solution
- Sample Quiz Chapters 12-13 and answers (2018)
- Sample Quiz Chapters 13-14, mostly based on Chapters 13 and 14 with some questions coming from chapters 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. solution (2019)
- Quiz Chapters 13-14 with solutions (2017).
HW – (April 5, 24):
- read Chapter 14 “Limit laws” (do all examples and exercises);
- optional: listen to Video Lectures 8a and 8b for Chapter 14;
- Sample quizzes for Chapter 14: in-class and take-home versions;
- ask questions (here are pictures from the white board, December 5, 2018);
- Sample Quiz Chapter 14 (solution 2020);
- Sample Quiz Chapter 14, mostly based on Chapter 14 with some questions coming from chapters 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 answers (2018)
HW – (April 12, 14):
- Thursday April 14: in-class Test on Chapters 11, 12, 13, 14. You can bring one two-sided hand-written page of notes with formulas.
HW – (April 19, 21):
- read Chapter 15 “Probability inequalities”, focus on Markov’s and Chebyshev’s inequalities;
- read Chapter 16 “Applications in Insurance and Actuarial Science”, focus on 16.2, 16.4, 16.5;
- Quiz on Chapters 15 and 16 due Sunday, April 24
HW – (April 26, 28):
- review/extra chapters
Final Exam:
Monday
05/02/2022
03:30pm–05:30pm
KNS201
—
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
(all future dates are tentative) –>